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sirenjose · 1 year ago

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Wu Chang's 2023 Character Day Letter Analysis (+ Qi Shiyi Analysis)

Letter Summary (Short)

Jose's father performs trades for others with some of his cargo as collateral

Umbrella eventually sold to Qi Shiyi

Theories

Jose's father, Joaquin Baden, is performing trades in the Mediterranean Sea, with some of his cargo (including the umbrella, with the receipt signed by "Bourbon", who's likely Sam) as collateral.

Based on the umbrella's involvement and the fact their voyage will take them to a new "specified area" of the Mediterranean, this should take place during Jose's 1st letter. The voyage Joaquin never returns from.

Based on the reference to the "Bourbon" signature and "list of goods", this should connect directly to Jose's 2nd letter. The "signature on my father's ledger of goods". This means that the "ledger of goods" Jose saw belonged to Joaquin's ship, which we know was called the "Parthenope" from Jose's 1st letter, from the voyage his father disappeared from.

Also, the fact Jose in his 2nd letter says he's seen this handwriting "once before" makes it sound like Sam was only involved with the Badens on this 1 voyage (aka, he doesn't regularly work with them).

Based on how it says "again", it seems they've sailed to the Mediterranean Sea to perform these trades before (they just go to different areas of it each time), meaning this is likely not the 1st time they've done this.

Could this be the "special missions" assigned to the Baden family by the royal family in Jose's deduction 5?

If so, is Villhelm Lamb potentially connected to the royal family?

It doesn't say what Joaquin earned as part of performing this trade. Yes, he gets his cargo labeled as collateral back, but what did he get in return? Money? Or was it just one of his tasks in service to the royal navy?

“Villhelm” relates to the Old German name William apparently, and can have meanings including “protector��. Lamb is explanatory enough.

I do wonder if it’s possible Villhelm Lamb could be the manor owner (aka, he used a fake name). It could be a real person and not a fake name, but like I said, it’s just something I wonder.

If it is a fake name, we know it can’t be Sam (or Demi) based on the “Bourbon” signature. Sam we know is a “colleague” of the manor owner based on Demi’s 3rd letter, and it was confirmed in Demi’s release backstory that Sam did go to the manor (specifically, it says he was “offered a job as a bartender” but it’s likely this wasn’t the complete truth considering what we know he worked on while there based on Demi’s 3rd letter).

We know Sam’s “masterpiece”, which the manor owner also refers to as a “drug” and “reagent”, used the same “raw materials” as the manor owner’s, likely referring to the fern known as “Delphi” based on Vera’s 4th letter.

We know the materials the owner used were supplied to him via the 2nd anniversary package (which says “new specimens arrived”, “before the next restock”, and “I must find someone else to help me supply”). Demi’s 1st letter talks having “extracted 9 samples from the things they brought back from the Mediterranean Sea”. Considering what we know Joaquin was doing in the Mediterranean, these “things” likely came from the Badens, and may have been the “Delphi” ferns.

All of this is why I do wonder if Orpheus could’ve been Villhelm Lamb.

If anything, the meaning of the name Villhelm, “protector”, relates to what Alice says Orpheus promised her in the 2nd anniversary package “…person who promised to protect me forever”. (Orpheus’ S-tier, Hollow, in his design notes even mentions “he once thought he could use his way to protect his island, everything he loves”).

Going even further, “Lamb” ties to Alice based on her Source of Evil, who’s description even says “Perhaps ‘purity’ is merely the lamb’s disguise – it’s in truth the origin of all sins and the source of evil thoughts”, while her design notes even say “the little girl is the lamb”.

Ergo, maybe Orpheus chose the name “Villhelm Lamb” as a nod to him protecting Alice.

With how it says “the Promisee shall put up a shipment of goods as collateral”, it sounds like it was Joaquin (or maybe Sam, who seems to be the one inspecting the goods?) chose to offer the umbrella as collateral. Was it because they didn’t think it valuable?

Moving on to Qi Shiyi, it seems like “Legwraps Huang” (in the Chinese version, the line here is “脛巾の黄三児より” had his friend Chang Chip (though earlier it said the “last word has been altered many time”) meet him at a harbor about the umbrella he that came into his “possession”. According to Legwraps Huang, he acquired it from a “friend working on a foreigner’s fleet”. The umbrella should be the same one Joaquin put up as collateral, Wu Chang’s, while the “foreigner’s fleet” should be the Baden’s.

It is unknown who this “friend” is, but there is something interesting about “Chang Chip”, especially after Legwraps Huang comments “Do you remember boarding that huge ship together back then?”. What’s interesting is that “Chang Chip” was the name of 1 of the 6 Chinese survivors of the sinking of the Titanic (there were 8 Chinese passengers in the third-class cabins on the titanic total). The other 5 were Lee Bing, Fang Lang, Ah Lam, Cheong Foo, and Ling Hee (the 2 that died were Len Lam and Lee Ling). These 6 eventually arrived in the UK to support the sailor shortage during World War I. Chang Chip apparently grew ill and eventually died 2 years later due to pneumonia.

I find this especially interesting as Demi’s 2nd letter is apparently written “on the Back of an Old Ferry Ticket”. This “ferry ticket was for a trip from Southampton to New York. It had not been used”. Southampton to New York was the route the Titanic took the day it sank. Considering Legwraps Huang describes the boat as “huge”, it seems fairly certain the boat is meant to parallel the Titanic. Though the Titanic sailed in 1912, which is a few too many years ahead of what the time period of the game currently, which is still sometime before 1900, at least until/after the Final Game.

Considering Huang describes Chang Chip as “wearing one of those jackets made by foreigners”, this seems to fit with what we know from history about them going to the UK and becoming sailors.

As such, it’s likely that Legwraps Huang is meant to be 1 of the 5 other Titanic Survivors (excluding Chang Chip).

Even though Sam didn’t board that ship, maybe Sam and Huang somehow did know each other, for Sam to be the “friend” Huang got the umbrella from. I mean, Sam’s signature as well as the umbrella were “circled” according to Wu Chang’s letter, so maybe it’s possible.

I have 1 other idea. Based on the letter, it’s likely that Legwraps Huang got the umbrella when Joaquin failed to fulfill the task with the required items, at which point Villhelm Lamb may have given away or sold the shipment of goods left to him as collateral by Joaquin. In which case, Villhelm Lamb may be the “friend” Legwraps Huang referenced. And technically, this idea and the theory Villhelm Lamb could be Orpheus aren’t mutually exclusive, as the manor owner (if he is Villhelm Lamb) could’ve sold the umbrella as he also didn’t see it as something valuable (and if he really is in debt to Count Barriere and then Lily, he might need the money anyways).

If Joaquin and the Parthenope did sink while attempting to retrieve “the goods from the specified area in the Mediterranean Sea”, that would also imply their wreck was likely in the Mediterranean. In that case, that means the wreck at Lakeside Village (which we know has to belong to Jose’s father based on what can be found in the ship: https://twitter.com/SirenJose/status/1558166028022173696?s=20) likely wasn’t the wreck from Joaquin’s disappearance.

Though that does mean it could’ve been their wreck from the “nightmarish waters” incident, when they sailed through the area marked as “dangerous” to avoid a storm and any “delay[s]” (if most of the crew perished according to Jose’s deductions and it took 2 months before they could sail home, especially if the waters are described as “nightmarish” and “dangerous”, it is highly likely they did shipwreck).

The large shipwreck at Lakeside is referenced in several letters, including when Volcker went there to investigate, and in another letter that mentions an old man is living in the shipwreck. This means the shipwreck is from before the Lakeside villagers disappeared, and could’ve potentially been there for a long while, which would fit if it was from the wreck right before the DeRoss tragedy (https://twitter.com/SirenJose/status/1682410040664244224).

Another important point is that, if the umbrella was being used as “collateral” and would only be returned if Joaquin provided the goods desired from the specified area, that means the “them” that the “cannons couldn’t kill” wasn’t Wu Chang. The umbrella wouldn’t have even been on board the ship when it sank, instead being held by Villhelm Lamb for at the time. If the umbrella wasn’t on board, it means they couldn’t have been behind whatever the crew were trying to kill. It’s still possible due to possessing the umbrella at all that the were the victims of the umbrella’s misfortune, even though it wasn’t with them at that time.

It still seems like if the crew were trying to kill something with cannons, but failing, that may mean they were hallucinating. If Wu Chang wasn’t behind the hallucinations, what then? Well, we are aware of something that can cause hallucinations, something the manor owner himself created, who may have even been the “Villhelm Lamb” who requested Joaquin and his crew go to the specified location.

Even if the owner isn’t Villhelm Lamb, we do know Sam, who was the one to actually sign the “ledger of goods” for Joaquin’s ship that day, does work for the owner. And in Demi’s 2nd letter does say “Despite our many attempts, the new mice all died in fear with no exception”. “New” would fit with the idea Sam was only involved with the Badens this one time (based on Jose saying he’s only seen the handwriting once before). “Mice” could just be a way to refer to test subjects, and we already know the manor owner and Sam have both performed experiments for their drugs on people. The manor owner experimented with all the participants of his game. With Sam, he at least tested on Demi’s mother based on him commenting on Demi having the “same curious drug resistance as her crazy mother”. There’s also how Demi’s deductions reference him having “observation diar[ies]”, not to mention if Dovlin was the drug he was trying to perfect, and we know he’s let others at their bar have the drink, but not Demi interestingly (suspiciously), he may have also used the customers of their bar as test subjects. That may have been why, when it wasn’t working well enough, he had to go to the manor. Finally, the part about the “mice all died in fear with no exception” could relate to how we know the crew were freaked out about some “them” that they tried (and failed) to kill with the cannons, with the part about all dying “with no exception” can connect to how, unlike the “nightmarish waters” incident, the entire crew “with[out] exception” died this time.

Aka, the manor owner or Sam are possibly the reason for Jose’s father’s disappearance. Or both considering Demi’s 2nd letter references “start[ing] the game immediately” aka the manor owner’s games as we know Sam was the manor owner’s “colleague”. If Joaquin really was involved in the DeRoss tragedy, it’s possible Orpheus chose them as the “mice” as part of his revenge. Though Sam does say “this is clearly not what he expected to see”, but that could simply refer to them all dying, but not necessarily that he didn’t want to make them hallucinate or suffer. He may have not expected it simply because he wanted to continue to use them for more experiments, like he does for the participants of his games, who he is willing to reuse in multiple rounds or experiments.

We see that Chang Chip eventually sells the umbrella, as well as his store, to Qi Shiyi. The umbrella is specified to be sold at a “discounted price”, which sounds like Chang Chip wanted to get the umbrella off his hands and away quickly. This may mean he was a victim of the bad luck that seems to follow that umbrella (which would semi parallel the real Chang Chip’s fate).

As for the addresses, we can actually find these locations in the in-game Chinatown map.

“Blessed Luck, Ramyhurst Street”

We know this is the location of Chang Chip’s, and later Qi Shiyi’s, store based on the sign (you can check the Chinese version of Wu Chang’s letter to confirm).

“Royal Scenery, Ramyhurst Street”

We know this is the other location, “Royal Scenery”, due to connecting it to Chinatown’s backstory. In it, we see that Lin Jingfu is the owner of Yujing Pavilion (aka 御景轩, the same name used in the Chinese version of the letter). The backstory talks about him excelling at making clay sculptures, and his art was so popular he was always in short supply. Lin Jingfu we know is who Qi Shiyi is staying with, as he is a “distant relative” of Qi’s “Uncle Lin” aka “Lin Congbin” and Qi is sent to him when Lin Congbin dies.

We know from this deduction that Lin Jingfu is pressured (potentially by his family or wife) to “kick her out”. Qi becomes an assassin to earn some money and ensure she doesn’t starve (she is described as a “motherless beggar” in her deduction 7), potentially for Tang Jiashi considering how the Tang family businesses have been closing in Qi’s last deduction, as well as how Qi talks about Tang Jiashi not being able to get in touch with her, or maybe someone else if not Tang Jiashi. That’s why Qi’s deduction 8 says “many wealthy businessmen in the city were found dead. It’s a suspected case of hired killings due to unethical business practice”. It fits considering we already know Qi’s design notes say she studied “martial arts... to survive and get revenge”.

Earning money in this way is likely how she was able to eventually earn enough to buy Chang Chip’s antique shop, which again matches with how her design notes says she “[fled] the country, even crossing the ocean, before finally living among ordinary people as an antique dealer”.

This here may be the part in Qi Shiyi’s story where she attempted to “rid her hands of the stains that plagued them and attempt a new life as an ordinary person”. This means she likely stopped performing assassinations and sought to go clean and earn whatever she needed from her new antique shop. Considering her parents were described as “scholars”, so maybe being the owner of an antique shop was in some way related to what her family used to do, which could’ve been why she was willing to attempt to be an “ordinary person” and “rid her hands of the stains that plagued them” (aka, stopping all her assassination attempts and revenge).

Considering the mention of “Xie” in her deduction 2, it’s possible Qi’s family, the Xiao family, knew or were friends with the Xie family. If it is the same “Xie” as Xie Bi’an, considering Wu Chang’s backstory states how “people believed that Xie Bi’an (White Guard) resided in the umbrella”, it’s possible that his family kept the umbrella as a keepsake (or relic of the deceased). At least until the 2 families were executed for “colluding, conspiring to rebel, sowing discord among the people, and seeking to do harm to the government”. Whether or not they actually did what they were accused of, we don’t know for sure. They could’ve been innocent (maybe similar to Wu Chang in his backstory), or maybe they weren’t. All we have is that Qi Shiyi’s backstory says “the Xiao family's decision to shut out the outside world was the reason for their downfall”. After they were killed, she was taken in by Lin Congbin “an old servant of the Xiao family who’d returned home from an illness… The two of them were destitute like beggars”. Qi attempts to get revenge via assassination (on the emperor potentially), but only his “double” actually died. It is then that she is forced to flee, after which she’s taken in by Lin Jingfu and everything we’ve already discussed.

Going back to her trying to live like an “ordinary person”, we know however that peace didn’t last forever for her, as “that manor decided to steal away the most important person in her life...”. The person that was “[stolen] away” was likely Tang Si from Qi’s deduction 10, who she potentially befriended, as Qi’s backstory trailer says “And for her safe return”. Qi goes to the manor to retrieve Tang Si (we have no way to know right now how she ended up there), and this is likely how Wu Chang’s umbrella ended up at the manor before Jose arrived.

Therefore, based on this, it’s possible that Qi Shiyi was in an earlier game before Jose, potentially Game 1 (after Game 0) as that is the 1 game before Jose’s (game 5) that we have no knowledge of any of the participants (though I do wonder if Lily could also be in game 1 as she is tied to Galatea, from game 0, and she may want Orpheus to pay his debt to help Simon, and Orpheus does also appear in game 0, so maybe game 1 could make some sense for her if not the final game).

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